So, if RS were simply a plan to demolish Midtown, create storefronts, build a bus station and theater, I'd be happy, because I think all of those things can stand on their own downtown. Even though Midtown is a ghost town, some small businesses are making it there today, so we know there's a demand for what they offer. Mass transit is good for everyone, and a nice theater is also a general benefit.
Unfortunately, much of what I hear about this project is crazy talk. For example, the D&C's Friday coverage mentioned that the urban renewal panel suggested a need to attract businesses like Best Buy and Trader Joes.
Best Buy is going to locate in an urban area only if there is a huge amount of traffic in a prized location. RS might be that place in 10 or 20 years, if everything goes perfectly. Even then, this town will still have tons of big-box electronic stores in the easily accessible suburbs. Why would BB build an expensive store downtown on a wish and a prayer, when they know this store would compete with cheaper, more accessible suburban locations? Ditto for Trader Joes - an upscale grocery chain. If Wegmans can't (or won't) make it in the city, Trader Joes certainly can't. In fact, Trader Joes probably doesn't have any Rochester locations because they can't compete with Wegmans, in the city or the 'burbs.
The only businesses that will be economically viable in this area for the near- and mid-term are the small businesses that exist there today, along with a few more restaurants and shops that cater to theater-goers or bus riders. Anybody thinking otherwise is a fool spending other people's money: in other words, a politician.
Unfortunately, the fiscally retarded politicians involved in this project want a big splash. A small, rational development project with a long-term plan for sustainable growth just isn't sexy enough for them. Only a big-money project with the cash to grease a lot of palms will do. This is the reason that we got the largest fast ferry in the world - a regular-size ferry, like the one that has been operating successfully in Michigan for the past couple of years, just wouldn't have created the same number of photo ops and headlines.
The trick for the unholy alliance of Brooks, Pataki, Clinton and Johnson is to conjure up a project that won't fail until after they're out of office. And when it does fail, it should fail gradually and quietly. In other words, they don't want another ferry. Instead, they want another High Falls.
High Falls was developed with a massive injection of government money. The opportunistic owners of the Empire and Jillian's took the low-interest, low-risk loans offered at the time and built huge edifices which have since gone bankrupt. For them, it was a no-brainer: they got an essentially risk-free loan and access to the cash flow of the restaurants they built. The politicians also got their "big splash" -- at the time, Jillian's and the Empire were one-of-a-kind venues worthy of press coverage.
Today, we have Bru and a big empty white elephant that used to be Jillian's. The High Falls/Frontier Field area is a nice place, but a more modest development project would have achieved the same goal. Millions of dollars went down a rathole on that one. I'm betting the same will be true of Renaissance Square. The benefit derived will be completely out of proportion to the cost, and much of the money will end up lining the pockets of business people who are doing just fine without a government handout.
